Pundit predicts LibDem majority of 1,100 in SW Surrey (South West Surrey Liberal Democrats)

South West Surrey Liberal Democrats <info@swsurreylibdems.org.uk>

Pundit predicts LibDem majority of 1,100 in SW Surrey

October 31, 2004 9:24 PM

Graph showing Baxter SW Surrey prediction

Pundit Martin Baxter predicts a LibDem majority of 1,100 votes at the next election in SW Surrey

The Liberal Democrats will win the parliamentary constituency of South West Surrey according to the latest prediction of election analyst Martin Baxter.

Mr Baxter has been analysing election trends since the 1983 general election and predicting results for the last three elections. His method applies national poll trends to the circumstances in each seat.

At the last general election, SW Surrey LibDem candidate Simon Cordon rocked the local political establishment when he came just 861 votes away from toppling Tory MP Virginia Bottomley.

Based on Simon Cordon's showing in 2001 analyst Martin Baxter says that the LibDems will gain the seat with a majority of 1,136 votes. Mr Baxter also predicts that Guildford will be held by LibDem MP Sue Doughty with her majority increasing to over 2,500 votes.

Mr Baxter's analysis is cautious and conservative. It predicts ten gains across the Country for the LibDems pushing them up from 51 seats at the last election to 61 seats next time.

Chairman of the local Liberal Democrat constituency party, Councillor Nancie Mitchell, said: "This is the second time that SW Surrey has appeared as a LibDem gain in a national analysis and confirms our own findings on the ground. The overall prediction is very cautious. We expect to do far better nationally. In such a cautious analysis for SW Surrey to be shown as a LibDem gain is even more encouraging. Last time pundits were suggesting a comfortable Conservative win in SW Surrey but Simon Cordon's result showed that we do even better than the pundits expect. The real message of this prediction is to confirm that the Liberal Democrats can win SW Surrey in what will be a close fight between us and the Conservatives".

Mr Baxter's analysis is contained on www.financialcalculus.co.uk/election/index.html

The predicted majority is based on a turnout equivalent to the turnout in 2001.